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Nacional PB vs Sousa

Brazil Brazil

Paraibano
Nacional PB Logo

Nacional PB

1 - 1
FT
Sousa Logo

Sousa

Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Renezinho
19' Event
Pingo
40'
Felipe Jacare
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paraibano matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Nacional PB
35%
Draws
26%
Sousa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nacional PB

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Sousa have won more games recently than Nacional PB.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Nacional PB taking it.
  • Regular Paraibano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Nacional PB Clean Sheet 68%
Sousa Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional PB Sousa
Matches Played 29 40
Wins 8 19
Draws 11 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.31 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.48 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Paraibano
Nacional PB vs Sousa
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Paraibano
Sousa vs Nacional PB
3:0
Jan 21, 2024 Paraibano
Nacional PB vs Sousa
1:0
Jul 9, 2023 Serie D
Sousa vs Nacional PB
1:0
May 21, 2023 Serie D
Nacional PB vs Sousa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional PB Compare

Top Goalscorer Pingo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Sousa Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Jacare
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional PB 68 / 100
Sousa 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional PB Sousa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional PB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional PB's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Sousa has conceded goals in 65% of their last 40 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Nacional PB remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sousa
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional PB

(Home)
22 Feb
Treze PB
1 : 2
Nacional PB
12 Feb
Nacional PB
1 : 1
Sousa
09 Feb
Serra Branca
2 : 2
Nacional PB
05 Feb
Nacional PB
0 : 0
Botafogo PB
01 Feb
Atletico Cajazeirense
1 : 0
Nacional PB
Page 1 of 6

Sousa

(Away)
14 Jun
Sousa
0 : 2
America RN
01 Jun
Maguary
2 : 0
Sousa
23 May
Sousa
0 : 0
Central SC
16 May
ABC
2 : 0
Sousa
10 May
Laguna RN
0 : 1
Sousa
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 9 4 4 1 13:7 16
2 Campinense 9 4 3 2 14:9 15
3 Sousa 9 4 3 2 13:8 15
4 Serra Branca 9 4 2 3 11:10 14
5 Nacional PB 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Treze PB 9 4 0 5 11:11 12
7 EC de Patos 9 3 2 4 6:9 11
8 Atletico Cajazeirense 9 3 1 5 6:11 10
9 Confianca PB 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Pombal 9 2 2 5 10:18 8
Promotion - Paraibano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraibano 2 2027 (Main)