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Nacional Potosi vs Aurora

Bolivia Bolivia

Division Profesional Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte
Fri, Jul 10, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nacional Potosi play Aurora in the Division Profesional. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nacional Potosi averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. Aurora averaged 1.72 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. In past meetings, Nacional Potosi won 2, Aurora won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 27, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Nacional Potosi and 1.69 for Aurora. This points to a Nacional Potosi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Nacional Potosi
23%
Draws
35%
Aurora
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Nacional Potosi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Nacional Potosi picked up more points recently compared to Aurora.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Nacional Potosi Clean Sheet 13%
Aurora Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Potosi Aurora
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 16 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 Division Profesional
Aurora vs Nacional Potosi
1:2
May 16, 2025 Division Profesional
Nacional Potosi vs Aurora
3:1
Dec 17, 2024 Division Profesional
Aurora vs Nacional Potosi
1:1
Sep 14, 2024 Division Profesional
Nacional Potosi vs Aurora
1:3
Mar 13, 2024 Division Profesional
Aurora vs Nacional Potosi
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional Potosi 40 / 100
Aurora 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Potosi Aurora

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nacional Potosi or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nacional Potosi attacking → ← attacking Aurora

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional Potosi scored in 79% of their last 34 games.

Aurora let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Nacional Potosi went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Aurora lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 39
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Always Ready852114:517
2The Strongest752012:617
3Aurora844014:716
4Bolivar842219:914
5Blooming833214:1012
6Independiente733111:1012
7Guabira932414:2011
8Club Universitario de Vinto831414:1210
9Oriente Petrolero831410:1110
10Academia del Balompie730412:179
11Nacional Potosi72239:98
12San Antonio Bulo Bulo821510:147
13Real Potosi61325:56
14Real Oruro612310:145
15Tomayapo71243:165
16GV San Jose60245:112