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Nacional SP vs Uniao Sao Joao

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nacional SP
33%
Draws
27%
Uniao Sao Joao
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Uniao Sao Joao carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Nacional SP are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Uniao Sao Joao arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 17%
Uniao Sao Joao Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional SP Uniao Sao Joao
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.88 1
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2023 Paulista A4
Uniao Sao Joao vs Nacional SP
3:1
Aug 26, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:0
Aug 19, 2023 Paulista A4
Uniao Sao Joao vs Nacional SP
0:0
Jul 29, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:0
Jul 22, 2023 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional SP 39 / 100
Uniao Sao Joao 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional SP Uniao Sao Joao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Sao Joao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Nacional SP remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Nacional SP's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 0.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Nacional SP VS Uniao Sao Joao
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional SP

(Home)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
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Uniao Sao Joao

(Away)
31 Jul
Comercial
0 : 1
Uniao Sao Joao
25 Jul
Noroeste
2 : 2
Uniao Sao Joao
22 Jul
Uniao Sao Joao
0 : 0
Piracicaba
04 Jul
Santos
3 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
21 Mar
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 2
EC Sao Bernardo
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Francana1
Catanduva FC5
Rio Branco SP0
Taquaritinga1
Nacional SP1
Uniao Sao Joao3
Uniao Barbarense0
Sao-Carlense4
Semi-finals
Catanduva FC3
Taquaritinga2
Uniao Sao Joao4
Sao-Carlense3
Final
Catanduva FC0
Uniao Sao Joao2