Sport Picks
Match Events
18'
18'
Bojang Y.
34'
34'
Chissumba
Assist: Chiquinho
36'
36'
Camara D.
Assist: Spencer D.
AI Match Summary
Alverca in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alverca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alverca
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Nacional haven't matched Alverca's recent run of results.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Nacional Clean Sheet 21%
Alverca Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 18 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Alverca
1:3
Apr 18, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Alverca
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs Nacional
1:0
May 2, 2004 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs Nacional
2:1
Jan 4, 2004 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Alverca
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Djalo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Alverca Compare
Top Goalscorer Camara D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Chissumba
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nacional 37 / 100
Alverca 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nacional Alverca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alverca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alverca let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Nacional scored in 57% of their last 30 games.
Alverca's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Nacional VS Alverca
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Nacional
(Home) 19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4 Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4 Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
16 Aug
Nacional
2 : 0 Estoril
22 Jul
Nacional
0 : 0 Leganes
Page 1 of 4
Alverca
(Away) 19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2 Braga
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1 Santa Clara
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Alverca
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Alverca
09 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Alverca
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0 Alverca
11 Jul
Leiria
0 : 1 Alverca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
