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Nacional vs Estoril

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio da Madeira, Funchal
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Xeka
32'
Xeka
32'
Xeka

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal game between Nacional and Estoril finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nacional.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Nacional
15%
Draws
21%
Estoril
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Nacional haven't matched Estoril's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Nacional's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Nacional Clean Sheet 68%
Estoril Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Estoril
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 6 8
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 0.97 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estoril
2:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estoril
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Nacional
1:1
Feb 15, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estoril
2:2
Sep 15, 2024 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Nacional
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Ze Vitor
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leo Santos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Estoril Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional 50 / 100
Estoril 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Estoril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estoril let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Estoril's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Nacional scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nacional VS Estoril
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional

(Home)
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3
Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0
Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3
Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0
Nacional
16 Aug
Nacional
2 : 0
Estoril
Page 1 of 6

Estoril

(Away)
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0
Arouca
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1
Estoril
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2
Rio Ave
16 Aug
Nacional
2 : 0
Estoril
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 6 6 0 0 15:2 18
2 Benfica 6 5 1 0 21:4 16
3 Sporting CP 6 4 2 0 15:6 14
4 Santa Clara 6 4 2 0 11:4 14
5 Arouca 6 3 1 2 8:5 10
6 Estrela da Amadora 6 2 4 0 14:12 10
7 Braga 5 3 1 1 7:5 10
8 Academico Viseu 6 2 2 2 7:9 8
9 Gil Vicente 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
10 Maritimo 6 2 1 3 7:11 7
11 Moreirense 6 2 1 3 7:13 7
12 Alverca 6 1 2 3 8:11 5
13 Famalicao 6 0 4 2 5:7 4
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 6 1 1 4 4:7 4
15 Nacional 6 1 1 4 7:11 4
16 Rio Ave 6 1 1 4 5:14 4
17 Estoril 6 0 2 4 2:8 2
18 Casa Pia 6 0 1 5 1:15 1
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)