Sport Picks
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio da Madeira, Funchal 
Match Events
3'
3'
Wesley Gasolina
Assist: Kokolo W.
40'
40'
Sub
Soares F. In: Djalo M.
Out: Soares F.
45'
45'
Ze Vitor
AI Match Summary
Estrela da Amadora in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Estrela da Amadora.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
20%
80%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Estrela da Amadora
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Estrela da Amadora have won more games recently than Nacional.
- Win probability leans Estrela da Amadora's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Nacional Clean Sheet 10%
Estrela da Amadora Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 6 | 8 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 17 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.44 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora
2:3
Jul 23, 2026 Club Friendly
Estrela da Amadora vs Nacional
2:0
Apr 4, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Nacional
1:1
Apr 6, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Wesley Gasolina
1 Goals Assists Leader Pablo Ruan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Estrela da Amadora Compare
Top Goalscorer Marcus A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Antonetti L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nacional 10 / 100
Estrela da Amadora 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nacional Estrela da Amadora
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Estrela da Amadora Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Estrela da Amadora let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Nacional's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Difficult form: Estrela da Amadora registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nacional VS Estrela da Amadora
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Nacional
(Home) 19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4 Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4 Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
16 Aug
Nacional
2 : 0 Estoril
22 Jul
Nacional
0 : 0 Leganes
Page 1 of 4
Estrela da Amadora
(Away) 20 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
0 : 2 Academico Viseu
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1 Braga
05 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 2 Famalicao
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
15 Aug
Alverca
2 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
16 May
Braga
2 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
02 May
Moreirense
3 : 2 Estrela da Amadora
Page 1 of 2
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
