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Nacional vs Famalicao - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio da Madeira, Funchal
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Koutsias G.
Assist: Sorriso
13' Event
Sorriso
28'
Rofino V. G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal game between Nacional and Famalicao finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Famalicao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Nacional
30%
Draws
70%
Famalicao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Famalicao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Famalicao carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Famalicao taking it.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Nacional Clean Sheet 16%
Famalicao Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Famalicao
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 11
Draws 6 12
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 0.83 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.48 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Famalicao
0:4
Mar 21, 2026 Liga Portugal
Famalicao vs Nacional
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Famalicao
0:1
Mar 1, 2025 Liga Portugal
Nacional vs Famalicao
2:1
Sep 29, 2024 Liga Portugal
Famalicao vs Nacional
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Famalicao Compare

Top Goalscorer Koutsias G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sorriso
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional 10 / 100
Famalicao 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Famalicao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Famalicao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Nacional found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Famalicao let in goals in 46% of their last 28 matches.

Famalicao's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional VS Famalicao
0.88 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional

(Home)
19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4
Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3
Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0
Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3
Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0
Nacional
Page 1 of 6

Famalicao

(Away)
19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4
Famalicao
13 Sept
Famalicao
1 : 1
Sporting CP
05 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 2
Famalicao
30 Aug
Famalicao
0 : 0
Gil Vicente
23 Aug
Santa Clara
1 : 0
Famalicao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 8 8 0 0 20:4 24
2 Sporting CP 8 5 3 0 20:9 18
3 Santa Clara 8 5 3 0 12:4 18
4 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
5 Academico Viseu 8 4 2 2 11:10 14
6 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
7 Gil Vicente 7 3 2 2 6:5 11
8 Braga 7 3 2 2 8:8 11
9 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 8 2 2 4 9:14 8
12 Moreirense 8 2 2 4 8:15 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 8 1 1 6 3:17 4
18 Estoril 8 0 2 6 4:12 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)