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Nacka FC vs Smedby - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Södra Svealand
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Match Events

78' Event
Hedquist F.
84' Event
Malm M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Division 2 - Södra Svealand matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Nacka FC
30%
Draws
16%
Smedby
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacka FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Smedby have won more games recently than Nacka FC.
  • Nacka FC are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Division 2 - Södra Svealand form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Smedby have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Nacka FC Clean Sheet 20%
Smedby Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacka FC Smedby
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 3 7
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 1.27 2
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Nacka FC vs Smedby
1:1
Apr 18, 2026 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Smedby vs Nacka FC
3:1
Oct 5, 2024 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Smedby vs Nacka FC
5:0
Jun 8, 2024 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Nacka FC vs Smedby
0:1
Oct 15, 2023 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Smedby vs Nacka FC
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacka FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Hedquist F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Smedby Compare

Top Goalscorer Malm M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacka FC 49 / 100
Smedby 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacka FC Smedby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacka FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Nacka FC scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Smedby let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Nacka FC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacka FC VS Smedby
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacka FC

(Home)
04 Oct
Nacka FC
1 : 4
Karlslund
26 Sept
Fittja IF
1 : 2
Nacka FC
19 Sept
Nacka FC
1 : 0
Ragsved
12 Sept
Sleipner
1 : 0
Nacka FC
05 Sept
Nacka FC
1 : 1
Smedby
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Smedby

(Away)
02 Oct
Smedby
1 : 1
Nykopings
27 Sept
Haninge
2 : 1
Smedby
19 Sept
Smedby
0 : 1
Fittja IF
12 Sept
Farsta
3 : 0
Smedby
05 Sept
Nacka FC
1 : 1
Smedby
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Farsta 25 15 4 6 51:27 49
2 Sleipner 24 13 6 5 49:36 45
3 Forward 24 13 5 6 45:29 44
4 Nykopings 24 13 4 7 39:23 43
5 Haninge 25 13 4 8 62:50 43
6 Ragsved 25 12 6 7 49:40 42
7 Smedby 25 10 6 9 44:37 36
8 Fittja IF 24 10 3 11 37:38 33
9 Karlslund 24 8 7 9 37:38 31
10 Orebro Syrianska 25 9 4 12 29:30 31
11 Nacka FC 25 8 3 14 31:49 27
12 Syrianska 25 7 5 13 39:54 26
13 Lindo FF 25 6 2 17 33:52 20
14 Eker Orebro 24 4 3 17 29:71 15
Promotion - Division 2 - Norra Götaland (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Division 2 - Södra Svealand (Relegation)