Sport Picks

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Naft Al-Basra vs Al Talaba

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Msuva S.
90' Event
Msuva S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2024/2025 game between Naft Al-Basra and Al Talaba finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Talaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Naft Al-Basra
35%
Draws
39%
Al Talaba
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Talaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Al Talaba carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 26% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Naft Al-Basra Clean Sheet 68%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naft Al-Basra Al Talaba
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 11
Draws 9 11
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 0.83 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Al Talaba
0:2
Nov 25, 2024 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Naft Al-Basra
0:1
May 21, 2024 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Al Talaba
1:1
Feb 10, 2024 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Naft Al-Basra
2:3
Jun 25, 2023 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Naft Al-Basra
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naft Al-Basra Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Talaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Msuva S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naft Al-Basra 41 / 100
Al Talaba 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naft Al-Basra Al Talaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Naft Al-Basra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al Talaba conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Naft Al-Basra scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Naft Al-Basra stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Al Talaba
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Naft Al-Basra

(Home)
14 Jul
Baghdad
1 : 0
Naft Al-Basra
04 Jul
Naft Al-Basra
4 : 3
Erbil
27 Jun
Diyala
2 : 2
Naft Al-Basra
20 Jun
Naft Al-Basra
1 : 3
Al Shorta
14 Jun
Zakho
2 : 1
Naft Al-Basra
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Al Talaba

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Talaba
2 : 2
Al Golan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
05 Sept
Zakho
0 : 0
Al Talaba
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al-Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al-Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al-Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al-Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)