Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Naft Al-Basra vs Erbil

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Khalif Mohammed Q.
(Penalty)
17' Event
Khalif Mohammed Q.
21' Event
Luqman G.

AI Match Summary

Naft Al-Basra in this Stars League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Naft Al-Basra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Naft Al-Basra
20%
Draws
57%
Erbil
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Naft Al-Basra haven't matched Erbil's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Erbil's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Naft Al-Basra Clean Sheet 23%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naft Al-Basra Erbil
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 18
Draws 9 8
Losses 16 4
Goals Scored 0.83 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2025 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Erbil
4:3
Nov 3, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Naft Al-Basra
4:1
May 30, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Naft Al-Basra
0:0
Dec 19, 2023 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Erbil
1:1
Jun 4, 2023 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Erbil
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naft Al-Basra Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalif Mohammed Q.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karrar J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Luqman G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Safaa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naft Al-Basra 10 / 100
Erbil 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naft Al-Basra Erbil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Naft Al-Basra scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Erbil conceded in 50% of 30 recent games.

Naft Al-Basra went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Erbil
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Naft Al-Basra

(Home)
14 Jul
Baghdad
1 : 0
Naft Al-Basra
04 Jul
Naft Al-Basra
4 : 3
Erbil
27 Jun
Diyala
2 : 2
Naft Al-Basra
20 Jun
Naft Al-Basra
1 : 3
Al Shorta
14 Jun
Zakho
2 : 1
Naft Al-Basra
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Erbil

(Away)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al-Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al-Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al-Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al-Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)