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Naft Gachsaran vs Shahrdari Noshahr

Iran Iran

Azadegan League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Naft Gachsaran play Shahrdari Noshahr in the Azadegan League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Naft Gachsaran averaged 0.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. Shahrdari Noshahr averaged 0.52 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Naft Gachsaran won 3, Shahrdari Noshahr won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 21, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Naft Gachsaran and 0.94 for Shahrdari Noshahr. This points to a Naft Gachsaran double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Naft Gachsaran
28%
Draws
29%
Shahrdari Noshahr
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Naft Gachsaran

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Naft Gachsaran picked up more points recently compared to Shahrdari Noshahr.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 14%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Naft Gachsaran Clean Sheet 24%
Shahrdari Noshahr Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naft Gachsaran Shahrdari Noshahr
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 4
Draws 10 13
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.76 0.52
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Azadegan League
Naft Gachsaran vs Shahrdari Noshahr
2:0
Sep 30, 2025 Azadegan League
Shahrdari Noshahr vs Naft Gachsaran
3:1
Jan 23, 2025 Azadegan League
Shahrdari Noshahr vs Naft Gachsaran
1:2
Sep 10, 2024 Azadegan League
Naft Gachsaran vs Shahrdari Noshahr
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naft Gachsaran Compare

Top Goalscorer Alipour O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ghelichkhani M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Shahrdari Noshahr Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naft Gachsaran 44 / 100
Shahrdari Noshahr 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naft Gachsaran Shahrdari Noshahr

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Naft Gachsaran or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +35.2%
5.88
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Naft Gachsaran attacking → ← attacking Shahrdari Noshahr

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naft Gachsaran scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Shahrdari Noshahr let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Naft Gachsaran went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Shahrdari Noshahr lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 25
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mazandaran32199446:1566
2Mes Shahr Babak321810439:1464
3Pars Janoobi Jam321412638:2154
4Sanat Naft321412634:2154
5Saipa321411727:1853
6Havadar SC321116530:1849
7Fard321015724:1445
8Naft Bandar Abbas32917623:1844
9Mes Kerman32915820:1742
10Ario Eslamshahr32815916:1639
11Besat Kermanshah329111224:2738
12Niroye Zamini328111327:2835
13Naft Gachsaran327131223:3734
14Kara Gostar Shabestar32891516:3433
15Shenavarsazi Qeshm327101519:3531
16Shahrdari Noshahr325141317:2729
17Navad Urmia324121616:4324
18Damash Gilan322121816:5218