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Naftan vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belarus Belarus

Vysshaya Liga Atlant Stadium, Novopolotsk
Naftan Logo

Naftan

3 - 0
FT
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Logo

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Yakovlev V.
Assist: Chernyavskiy V.
28'
Sub
Zaleskiy A. In: Tsallagov D.
Out: Zaleskiy A.
43' Event
Pranovich I.
Assist: Mafwenta G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Naftan in this Vysshaya Liga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Naftan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Naftan
35%
Draws
19%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Naftan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Naftan haven't matched Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's recent run of results.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Naftan taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Naftan Clean Sheet 10%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naftan Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.1 1.17
Goals Conceded 2.21 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Naftan vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
3:0
Apr 3, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Naftan
2:0
Nov 29, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Naftan vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2:0
Jul 6, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Naftan
0:1
Nov 24, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Naftan vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naftan Compare

Top Goalscorer Yakovlev V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pranovich I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naftan 38 / 100
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naftan Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Naftan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naftan scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Naftan remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Naftan VS Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
2.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Naftan

(Home)
10 Oct
Naftan
4 : 1
Belshina
19 Sept
Slavia Mozyr
0 : 1
Naftan
13 Sept
BATE
2 : 2
Naftan
06 Sept
Naftan
0 : 3
FC Minsk
02 Sept
Din. Minsk
5 : 1
Naftan
Page 1 of 6

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

(Away)
09 Oct
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 1
Dynamo Brest
03 Oct
FC Minsk
0 : 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
12 Sept
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 0
FK Baranovici
07 Sept
Isloch Minsk
1 : 1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Isloch Minsk 22 13 6 3 37:18 45
2 ML Vitebsk 21 12 8 1 42:17 44
3 Din. Minsk 21 13 4 4 37:16 43
4 Dynamo Brest 24 13 4 7 39:23 43
5 Neman 23 12 4 7 29:20 40
6 FC Gomel 23 11 6 6 33:18 39
7 Vitebsk 23 10 6 7 28:21 36
8 FC Minsk 24 10 4 10 30:29 34
9 Zhodino 23 8 6 9 29:29 30
10 Slavia Mozyr 23 6 7 10 24:28 25
11 FK Baranovici 24 6 7 11 24:41 25
12 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 24 5 8 11 24:42 23
13 BATE 23 4 9 10 18:28 21
14 Belshina 23 5 6 12 23:40 21
15 Naftan 24 4 5 15 24:55 17
16 Dnepr Mogilev 23 2 10 11 20:36 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Pershaya Liga 2027 (Main)