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Nagano Parceiro vs Matsumoto Yamaga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J3 League Nagano U Stadium, Nagano
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
06:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nagano Parceiro host Matsumoto Yamaga in the J3 League. Little to choose between these two on current form. Nagano Parceiro have averaged 1.1 scored and 1.72 conceded recently, against Matsumoto Yamaga's 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. Head-to-head, Nagano Parceiro have won 2 to Matsumoto Yamaga's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 26, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.00 - 1.56) back Nagano Parceiro to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nagano Parceiro
20%
Draws
40%
Matsumoto Yamaga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nagano Parceiro come out ahead of Matsumoto Yamaga on wins alone.
  • Model gives Nagano Parceiro a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Nagano Parceiro Clean Sheet 15%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nagano Parceiro Matsumoto Yamaga
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 11
Draws 2 5
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 J2/J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Nagano Parceiro
0:1
Mar 14, 2026 J2/J3 League
Nagano Parceiro vs Matsumoto Yamaga
0:5
Jul 19, 2025 J3 League
Nagano Parceiro vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:0
May 14, 2025 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Nagano Parceiro
2:2
Oct 5, 2024 J3 League
Nagano Parceiro vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nagano Parceiro 41 / 100
Matsumoto Yamaga 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nagano Parceiro Matsumoto Yamaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nagano Parceiro found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Matsumoto Yamaga let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Nagano Parceiro went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nagano Parceiro VS Matsumoto Yamaga
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nagano Parceiro

(Home)
10 Oct
Kochi United
1 : 3
Nagano Parceiro
03 Oct
Nagano Parceiro
0 : 1
Nara Club
26 Sept
Fukushima United
4 : 3
Nagano Parceiro
20 Sept
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 0
Gifu
13 Sept
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 1
Tochigi SC
Page 1 of 6

Matsumoto Yamaga

(Away)
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1
Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0
Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2
Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0
Matsumoto Yamaga
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3
SC Sagamihara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kagoshima United 9 7 2 0 19:10 23
2 Ehime 9 6 2 1 22:10 20
3 Nara Club 10 6 2 2 21:16 20
4 SC Sagamihara 10 5 3 2 18:12 18
5 FC Osaka 10 4 5 1 18:9 17
6 Renofa Yamaguchi 9 5 2 2 13:7 17
7 Kanazawa 10 4 2 4 17:14 14
8 Kumamoto 9 3 5 1 7:4 14
9 Reilac Shiga 10 4 2 4 16:16 14
10 Nagano Parceiro 10 4 2 4 14:14 14
11 Gifu 9 4 1 4 19:10 13
12 Gainare Tottori 9 4 1 4 12:18 13
13 Ryukyu 10 3 2 5 11:14 11
14 Tochigi SC 9 2 4 3 11:14 10
15 Giravanz Kitakyushu 10 2 4 4 12:18 10
16 Thespakusatsu Gunma 10 3 0 7 10:19 9
17 Matsumoto Yamaga 9 1 5 3 8:11 8
18 Fukushima United 10 2 2 6 20:25 8
19 Kamatamare Sanuki 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
20 Kochi United 10 1 2 7 4:23 5
Promotion - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J3 League (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - J3 League (Relegation)