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Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Toyota Stadium
Sun, Apr 19, 2026
3 - 2
07:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Usui S.
Assist: Kitajima Y.
33'
Oka T.
35' Event
Shigemi M.
Assist: Miki T.

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Nagoya Grampus and Avispa Fukuoka finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nagoya Grampus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Nagoya Grampus
28%
Draws
50%
Avispa Fukuoka
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Avispa Fukuoka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Nagoya Grampus's 1.75 goals per match outpaces what Avispa Fukuoka have produced (1.38).
  • Win probability leans Avispa Fukuoka's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 11%
Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nagoya Grampus Avispa Fukuoka
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 3 4
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka
3:2
Mar 7, 2026 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus
1:5
Dec 6, 2025 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka
1:0
May 17, 2025 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus
1:1
Oct 4, 2024 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nagoya Grampus Compare

Top Goalscorer Asano Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kimura Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Avispa Fukuoka Compare

Top Goalscorer Usui S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shigemi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nagoya Grampus 22 / 100
Avispa Fukuoka 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nagoya Grampus Avispa Fukuoka

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FUK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nagoya Grampus found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Avispa Fukuoka conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Avispa Fukuoka registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nagoya Grampus VS Avispa Fukuoka
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121