Sport Picks
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia Prediction & H2H Stats
Japan
J1 League Toyota Stadium, Toyota City 
Match Events
23'
23'
Sub
Asano Y. In: Yamagishi Y.
Out: Asano Y.
36'
36'
Sub
Okamura D. In: Mochizuki H.
Out: Okamura D.
43'
43'
Izumi R.
AI Match Summary
Machida Zelvia in this J1 League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Machida Zelvia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
15%
65%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Machida Zelvia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Machida Zelvia lately — more wins on the board than Nagoya Grampus.
- Machida Zelvia are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Regular J1 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Machida Zelvia here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 10%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nagoya Grampus | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 21 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 17 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.83 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
1:3
Jun 6, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
2:1
May 30, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
2:2
Nov 30, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
3:1
Mar 2, 2025 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nagoya Grampus Compare
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Machida Zelvia Compare
Top Goalscorer Shirasaki R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Matsuo Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nagoya Grampus 14 / 100
Machida Zelvia 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nagoya Grampus Machida Zelvia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Machida Zelvia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Nagoya Grampus scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Machida Zelvia conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.
Nagoya Grampus went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nagoya Grampus VS Machida Zelvia
1.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Nagoya Grampus
(Home) 29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3 Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3 Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3 Machida Zelvia
29 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 1 Okayama
26 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3 Gainare Tottori
22 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
3 : 1 Gamba Osaka
08 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
0 : 1 Shimizu S-Pulse
Page 1 of 3
Machida Zelvia
(Away) 03 Oct
Machida Zelvia
1 : 0 Kyoto
23 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1 Tochigi City
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4 Kashiwa Reysol
17 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 0 Svay Rieng
12 Sept
Machida Zelvia
1 : 1 Yokohama F. Marinos
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3 Machida Zelvia
29 Aug
Mito
1 : 1 Machida Zelvia
15 Aug
Chiba
0 : 4 Machida Zelvia
08 Aug
FC Tokyo
1 : 5 Machida Zelvia
30 May
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 2 Machida Zelvia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20:6 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Reds | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16:18 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:14 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:12 | 4 |
| 19 | Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 20 | Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:18 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
