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Nairobi United vs Etoile Sahel

Africa Africa

CAF Confederation Cup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nairobi United play Etoile Sahel in the CAF Confederation Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nairobi United averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Etoile Sahel averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Nairobi United won 1, Etoile Sahel won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 26, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Nairobi United and 0.94 for Etoile Sahel. This points to a Etoile Sahel double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Nairobi United
27%
Draws
38%
Etoile Sahel
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Etoile Sahel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Nairobi United picked up more points recently compared to Etoile Sahel.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Nairobi United Clean Sheet 24%
Etoile Sahel Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nairobi United Etoile Sahel
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 11 6
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.15 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.06 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2025 CAF Confederation Cup
Etoile Sahel vs Nairobi United
2:1
Oct 19, 2025 CAF Confederation Cup
Nairobi United vs Etoile Sahel
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nairobi United Compare

Top Goalscorer Ochieng O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Otieno J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Etoile Sahel Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nairobi United 36 / 100
Etoile Sahel 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nairobi United Etoile Sahel

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Etoile Sahel or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nairobi United attacking → ← attacking Etoile Sahel

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nairobi United scored in 71% of their last 34 games.

Etoile Sahel let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Nairobi United went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Etoile Sahel lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 45
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88