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Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero

Thailand Thailand

Thai League 2 Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nakhon Pathom play Police Tero in the Thai League 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nakhon Pathom averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Police Tero averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Nakhon Pathom won 1, Police Tero won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 15, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Nakhon Pathom and 1.63 for Police Tero. This points to a Police Tero double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Nakhon Pathom
24%
Draws
43%
Police Tero
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Police Tero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Nakhon Pathom picked up more points recently compared to Police Tero.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Nakhon Pathom Clean Sheet 14%
Police Tero Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nakhon Pathom Police Tero
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.87 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Thai League 2
Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Thai League 2
Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom
4:2
Mar 2, 2024 Thai League 1
Police Tero vs Nakhon Pathom
1:1
Oct 1, 2023 Thai League 1
Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero
1:2
Jan 12, 2022 League Cup
Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nakhon Pathom Compare

Top Goalscorer Phadungpattanodom B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Police Tero Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nakhon Pathom 33 / 100
Police Tero 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nakhon Pathom Police Tero

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Police Tero or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nakhon Pathom attacking → ← attacking Police Tero

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nakhon Pathom scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Police Tero let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Nakhon Pathom went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Police Tero lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 47
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Rasisalai United342011364:3571
2Sisaket United341612649:3160
3Pattani341610849:4558
4Nong Bua Pitchaya341661259:5954
5Police Tero341581150:4453
6Chainat Hornbill3412101250:4646
7Khonkaen United3411121160:5245
8Mahasarakham341291347:4245
9Trat FC341281449:5344
10Chiangmai United341411955:5843
11Phrae United3410131140:5043
12Pattaya United3410121245:4242
13Songkhla341181537:4641
14Chanthaburi3410101444:4640
15Nakhon Pathom341091529:3739
16Kasetsart349111446:4938
17Nakhon Si United348121432:5436
18Bangkok FC34981740:5635
19Lampang F.C.00000:00