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Stadium Background

Namyangju vs Jecheon Citizen

South Korea South Korea

K4 League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Namyangju averaging 1.2 xG at home and Jecheon Citizen producing 1.4 xG on their travels. Jecheon Citizen will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Namyangju to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Namyangju
31%
Draws
38%
Jecheon Citizen
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Jecheon Citizen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Namyangju picked up more points recently compared to Jecheon Citizen.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Namyangju Clean Sheet 16%
Jecheon Citizen Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Namyangju Jecheon Citizen
Matches Played 21 15
Wins 7 6
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 3
Goals Scored 1.24 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

05.04.26 K4 League
Namyangju vs Jecheon Citizen
0:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Namyangju

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Jecheon Citizen

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Namyangju Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
7 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
5 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.73

Jecheon Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
10 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
8 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 1.05

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Jecheon Citizen • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Namyangju • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Jecheon Citizen • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Namyangju • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Namyangju 31 / 100
Jecheon Citizen 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Namyangju Jecheon Citizen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Jecheon Citizen or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Namyangju will likely press early to force mistakes.

Namyangju 59%
Jecheon Citizen 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Jecheon Citizen should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Namyangju 54%
Jecheon Citizen 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Namyangju 51%
Jecheon Citizen 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Namyangju to push more players wide.

Namyangju 56%
Jecheon Citizen 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Namyangju 51%
Jecheon Citizen 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Namyangju 62%
Jecheon Citizen 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Namyangju attacking → ← attacking Jecheon Citizen

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Namyangju have scored in 90% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Jecheon Citizen concede most goals (52%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 22 shots per game, well above the league median.

Namyangju are unbeaten in 7 straight matches when scoring first.

Jecheon Citizen have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 6 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Namyangju wants a European spot, while Jecheon Citizen is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 24
1.19 Goals expected (xG) 1.44
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2