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Nantes vs Toulouse

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Sun, May 17, 2026
0 - 0
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nantes host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 2025/2026. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Nantes have averaged 1.25 scored and 0.88 conceded recently, against Toulouse's 1.25 scored and 2 conceded. Head-to-head, Nantes have won 1 to Toulouse's 0, with 4 draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.63 - 1.06) back Toulouse to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Nantes
39%
Draws
31%
Toulouse
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Toulouse come out ahead of Nantes on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Nantes Clean Sheet 20%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nantes Toulouse
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.25 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.88 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Toulouse
0:0
Sep 27, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Nantes
2:2
Apr 27, 2025 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Toulouse
0:0
Aug 18, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Nantes
0:0
Feb 11, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Nantes
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nantes 31 / 100
Toulouse 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nantes Toulouse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nantes scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Toulouse has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Nantes stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Nantes VS Toulouse
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nantes

(Home)
25 Jul
Le Mans
1 : 0
Nantes
22 Jul
Nantes
1 : 1
La Roche Vendee
18 Jul
Lorient
1 : 0
Nantes
11 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 5
Nantes
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
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Toulouse

(Away)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
10 May
Toulouse
2 : 1
Lyon
03 May
Strasbourg
1 : 2
Toulouse
25 Apr
Toulouse
2 : 2
Monaco
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)