Sport Picks

France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de la Beaujoire

Toulouse

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nantes host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 2025/2026. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Nantes have averaged 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Toulouse's 1.38 scored and 2.25 conceded. Head-to-head, Nantes have won 1 to Toulouse's 0, with 4 draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.56 - 1.31) back Toulouse to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Nantes

Draws

Toulouse

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nantes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Toulouse come out ahead of Nantes on wins alone.
Model gives Nantes a 90% chance of winning this.
Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%

Nantes Clean Sheet 18%

Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Nantes	Toulouse
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	5	12
Draws	6	8
Losses	17	10
Goals Scored	0.88	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.25	2.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Ligue 1

Nantes vs Toulouse

Possession: 54% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

0:0

Sep 27, 2025 Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Nantes

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

2:2

Apr 27, 2025 Ligue 1

Nantes vs Toulouse

Possession: 59% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Aug 18, 2024 Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Nantes

Possession: 47% - 44% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Feb 11, 2024 Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Nantes

Possession: 41% - 43% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nantes 85 / 100

Toulouse 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Nantes Toulouse

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAN Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nantes scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Toulouse has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Nantes stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Nantes VS Toulouse

0.88 Goals Scored 1.38

1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25

63% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 88%

13% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSG	34	24	4	6	74:29	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	66:35	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	52:37	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	53:40	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	63:45	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	59:50	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	60:54	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	58:47	53
9	Toulouse	34	12	9	13	47:46	45
10	Lorient	34	11	12	11	48:51	45
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	47:50	44
12	Brest	34	10	9	15	43:55	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	29:48	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	32:44	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	34:44	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	37:60	32
17	Nantes	34	5	9	20	29:52	24
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	32:76	17