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Nantes vs Brest

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Mostafa Mohamed
Assist: Coquelin F.
41'
Guindo D.
45'
Del Castillo R.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Nantes
11%
Draws
9%
Brest
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Nantes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Brest have won more games recently than Nantes.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Nantes taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Nantes Clean Sheet 68%
Brest Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nantes Brest
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Brest
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue 1
Brest vs Nantes
0:0
Feb 7, 2025 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Brest
0:2
Jan 15, 2025 Coupe de France
Brest vs Nantes
2:1
Dec 15, 2024 Ligue 1
Brest vs Nantes
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nantes Compare

Top Goalscorer Mostafa Mohamed
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Brest Compare

Top Goalscorer Chardonnet B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nantes 86 / 100
Brest 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nantes Brest

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nantes scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Brest conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Nantes stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nantes VS Brest
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nantes

(Home)
25 Jul
Le Mans
1 : 0
Nantes
22 Jul
Nantes
1 : 1
La Roche Vendee
18 Jul
Lorient
1 : 0
Nantes
11 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 5
Nantes
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
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Brest

(Away)
22 Jul
Brest
0 : 2
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Brest
2 : 2
Concarneau
17 May
Brest
1 : 1
Angers
13 May
Brest
1 : 2
Strasbourg
10 May
PSG
1 : 0
Brest
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)