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Nantes vs Brest

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Mostafa Mohamed
Assist: Coquelin F.
41'
Guindo D.
45'
Del Castillo R.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Nantes
35%
Draws
39%
Brest
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Brest

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Brest have won more games recently than Nantes.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Nantes Clean Sheet 13%
Brest Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nantes Brest
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 7
Draws 6 10
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Brest
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue 1
Brest vs Nantes
0:0
Feb 7, 2025 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Brest
0:2
Jan 15, 2025 Coupe de France
Brest vs Nantes
2:1
Dec 15, 2024 Ligue 1
Brest vs Nantes
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nantes Compare

Top Goalscorer Mostafa Mohamed
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Brest Compare

Top Goalscorer Chardonnet B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nantes 35 / 100
Brest 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nantes Brest

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brest Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brest has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Nantes scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Nantes stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nantes VS Brest
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nantes

(Home)
12 Sept
Sochaux
1 : 0
Nantes
07 Sept
Nantes
1 : 0
Nancy
29 Aug
Guingamp
3 : 3
Nantes
22 Aug
Nantes
2 : 5
Rodez
14 Aug
Laval
2 : 1
Nantes
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Brest

(Away)
05 Sept
Le Havre
1 : 2
Brest
29 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Toulouse
22 Aug
Le Mans
2 : 2
Brest
16 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 0
Brest
08 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Venezia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)