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Nantes vs Marseille Prediction & H2H Stats

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Abline M.
26'
Sub
Machado D. In: Acapandie M.
Out: Machado D.
31'
Timber Q.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Nantes and Marseille finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nantes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Nantes
15%
Draws
0%
Marseille
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nantes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Marseille carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 85% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Nantes Clean Sheet 68%
Marseille Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nantes Marseille
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 12
Draws 6 3
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 1.13 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Marseille
3:0
Jan 4, 2026 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Nantes
0:2
Mar 2, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Nantes
2:0
Nov 3, 2024 Ligue 1
Nantes vs Marseille
1:2
Mar 10, 2024 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Nantes
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nantes Compare

Top Goalscorer Ganago I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cabella R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Marseille Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nantes 41 / 100
Marseille 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nantes Marseille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nantes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 5:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marseille has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Difficult form: Marseille registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Nantes scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Nantes VS Marseille
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nantes

(Home)
19 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 2
Nantes
12 Sept
Sochaux
1 : 0
Nantes
07 Sept
Nantes
1 : 0
Nancy
29 Aug
Guingamp
3 : 3
Nantes
22 Aug
Nantes
2 : 5
Rodez
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Marseille

(Away)
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
17 Sept
Besiktas
4 : 1
Marseille
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3
Paris FC
30 Aug
Monaco
2 : 0
Marseille
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)