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Napier City vs Albany

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2019
Sun, Aug 4, 2019
3 - 2
02:00 AM
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Napier City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Napier City
25%
Draws
35%
Albany
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Napier City come out ahead of Albany on wins alone.
  • Napier City are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Napier City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Napier City, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Napier City Clean Sheet 13%
Albany Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napier City Albany
Matches Played 30 2
Wins 11 1
Draws 4 0
Losses 15 1
Goals Scored 2 1.5
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2019 Chatham Cup
Napier City vs Albany
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napier City 75 / 100
Albany 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napier City Albany

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Napier City scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Napier City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Albany conceded in 50% of 2 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Napier City VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
2.38 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
100% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Napier City

(Home)
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Napier City
Page 1 of 6

Albany

(Away)
04 Aug
Napier City
3 : 2
Albany
06 Jul
Albany
1 : 0
Eastern Suburbs

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roslyn Wakari 2
Caversham 3
Bay Olympic 3
Manukau United 0
Waitakere City 1
Melville 3
Christchurch 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
Napier City 4
Western Suburbs 1
Albany 1
Eastern Suburbs 0
Onehunga 2
North Shore 0
Miramar 1
Wellington Olympic 3
Quarter-finals
Caversham 1
Bay Olympic 2
Melville 4
Christchurch 0
Napier City 3
Albany 2
Onehunga 5
Wellington Olympic 4
Semi-finals
Bay Olympic 0
Melville 2
Napier City 2
Onehunga 1
Final
Melville 2
Napier City 3