Sport Picks
Match Events
17'
17'
Juan Jesus
19'
19'
Fernandez E.
(Penalty)
33'
33'
Vergara A.
AI Match Summary
Chelsea in this Champions League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chelsea.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
20%
45%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chelsea
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Napoli have won more games recently than Chelsea.
- Win probability leans Napoli's way, sitting at 36%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Champions League 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Chelsea have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Napoli Clean Sheet 10%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Napoli | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 8 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.68 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 28, 2026 Champions League
Napoli vs Chelsea
2:3
Mar 14, 2012 Champions League
Chelsea vs Napoli
4:1
Feb 21, 2012 Champions League
Napoli vs Chelsea
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Napoli Compare
Top Goalscorer Vergara A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hojlund R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Chelsea Compare
Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Napoli 34 / 100
Chelsea 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Napoli Chelsea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Napoli scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.
Chelsea let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 4.67 goals per match.
Napoli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Napoli VS Chelsea
1.88 Goals Scored 2.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Napoli
(Home) 30 Aug
Napoli
1 : 2 Como
22 Aug
Genoa
0 : 2 Napoli
12 Aug
Napoli
6 : 2 Aris
08 Aug
Napoli
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
05 Aug
Napoli
2 : 1 Osasuna
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Napoli
1 : 2 Como
12 Aug
Napoli
6 : 2 Aris
08 Aug
Napoli
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
05 Aug
Napoli
2 : 1 Osasuna
26 Jul
Napoli
2 : 0 Carrarese
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Chelsea
(Away) 30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
27 Aug
Chelsea
2 : 0 Luton
24 Aug
Fulham
2 : 3 Chelsea
15 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 1 Real Sociedad
09 Aug
Johor DT
3 : 3 Chelsea
Page 1 of 6
24 Aug
Fulham
2 : 3 Chelsea
09 Aug
Johor DT
3 : 3 Chelsea
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1 Chelsea
09 May
Liverpool
1 : 1 Chelsea
21 Apr
Brighton
3 : 0 Chelsea
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 11 | PSG | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Atl. Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 17 | Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag Agdam | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | 9 |
| 27 | Royale Union SG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 29 | Ath Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
