Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Napoli vs Qarabag Agdam

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Medina K.
50'
Lang N.
55'
Jankovic M.

AI Match Summary

The Champions League 2025/2026 game between Napoli and Qarabag Agdam finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Napoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Napoli
20%
Draws
38%
Qarabag Agdam
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Napoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Napoli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Napoli a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Napoli Clean Sheet 12%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napoli Qarabag Agdam
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.17 2.5
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 25, 2025 Champions League
Napoli vs Qarabag Agdam
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer McTominay S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napoli 40 / 100
Qarabag Agdam 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napoli Qarabag Agdam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napoli's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Qarabag Agdam conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Napoli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napoli VS Qarabag Agdam
1.17 Goals Scored 2.5
1 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Napoli

(Home)
22 Jul
Napoli
1 : 3
Arezzo
24 May
Napoli
1 : 0
Udinese
17 May
Pisa
0 : 3
Napoli
11 May
Napoli
2 : 3
Bologna
02 May
Como
0 : 0
Napoli
Page 1 of 6

Qarabag Agdam

(Away)
23 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia
16 Jul
Vestri
0 : 3
Qarabag Agdam
09 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 0
Vestri
01 Jul
Ferencvaros
1 : 0
Qarabag Agdam
01 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 6
FC Kharkiv
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal880023:424
2Bayern Munich870122:821
3Liverpool860220:818
4Tottenham852117:717
5Barcelona851222:1416
6Chelsea851217:1016
7Sporting CP851217:1116
8Manchester City851215:916
9Real Madrid850321:1215
10Inter850315:715
11PSG842221:1114
12Newcastle Utd842217:714
13Juventus834114:1013
14Atl. Madrid841317:1513
15Atalanta841310:1013
16Bayer Leverkusen833213:1412
17Dortmund832319:1711
18Olympiacos Piraeus832310:1411
19Club Brugge831415:1710
20Galatasaray83149:1110
21Monaco82428:1410
22Qarabag Agdam831413:2110
23Bodo/Glimt823314:159
24Benfica830510:129
25Marseille830511:149
26Pafos82338:119
27Royale Union SG83058:179
28PSV822416:168
29Ath Bilbao82249:148
30Napoli82249:158
31FC Copenhagen822412:218
32Ajax82068:216
33Eintracht Frankfurt811610:214
34Slavia Prague80355:193
35Villarreal80175:181
36Kairat Almaty80177:221
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)