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Napredak vs Smederevo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Serbia Serbia

Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Milunovic L.
22'
Krstovic L.
24' Event
Miladinovic D.

AI Match Summary

Smederevo in this Mozzart Bet Prva Liga matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Smederevo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Napredak
15%
Draws
64%
Smederevo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Smederevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Smederevo lately — more wins on the board than Napredak.
  • Smederevo are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Mozzart Bet Prva Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Napredak Clean Sheet 12%
Smederevo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napredak Smederevo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 16
Draws 5 5
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.86 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2026 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Napredak vs Smederevo
1:4
Sep 26, 2012 Mozzart Serbian Cup
Smederevo vs Napredak
1:0
Mar 6, 2010 Mozzart Bet Super Liga
Napredak vs Smederevo
2:2
Aug 22, 2009 Mozzart Bet Super Liga
Smederevo vs Napredak
1:0
Apr 30, 2008 Mozzart Bet Super Liga
Napredak vs Smederevo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napredak Compare

Top Goalscorer Miladinovic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Smederevo Compare

Top Goalscorer Spiridonovic S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Milunovic L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napredak 14 / 100
Smederevo 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napredak Smederevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Smederevo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Smederevo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Napredak's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Napredak stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napredak VS Smederevo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Napredak

(Home)
05 Oct
Napredak
3 : 0
Loznica
29 Sept
FK Vozdovac
0 : 0
Napredak
21 Sept
Napredak
1 : 4
Smederevo
16 Sept
Napredak
1 : 2
Vrsac
11 Sept
Spartak Subotica
1 : 0
Napredak
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Smederevo

(Away)
05 Oct
Smederevo
1 : 0
FK Vozdovac
26 Sept
Smederevo
1 : 0
Vrsac
21 Sept
Napredak
1 : 4
Smederevo
16 Sept
Smederevo
2 : 1
Spartak Subotica
12 Sept
Jedinstvo Ub
2 : 1
Smederevo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Borac 1926 12 8 1 3 21:16 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 12 6 6 0 24:13 24
3 Smederevo 12 7 3 2 21:13 24
4 Javor 12 6 5 1 29:14 23
5 Vrsac 12 7 1 4 16:11 22
6 Metalac 12 5 3 4 16:12 18
7 Napredak 12 5 2 5 13:15 17
8 Dubocica 12 4 4 4 13:15 16
9 FK Vozdovac 12 4 3 5 11:11 15
10 Loznica 12 3 6 3 16:19 15
11 Spartak Subotica 12 4 3 5 18:23 15
12 Proleter 023 12 3 4 5 19:15 13
13 Graficar Beograd 12 3 1 8 16:23 10
14 Teleoptik 12 2 4 6 14:23 10
15 Jedinstvo Ub 12 2 2 8 11:21 8
16 OFK Bor 1919 12 2 2 8 7:21 8
Promotion - Mozzart Bet Prva Liga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Mozzart Bet Prva Liga (Relegation Group)