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Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev Prediction & H2H Stats

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Solodov A.
49' Event
Villems M.
62' Event
Geveller D.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga B game between Narva U21 and Tartu Kalev finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Narva U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Narva U21
15%
Draws
24%
Tartu Kalev
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Narva U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Narva U21 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Narva U21 taking it.
  • Regular Esiliiga B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Narva U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Narva U21 Tartu Kalev
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 20 16
Draws 3 2
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 2.37 2.47
Goals Conceded 1.2 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21
0:1
Jun 18, 2026 Esiliiga B
Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev
3:2
Mar 14, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21
3:0
Nov 9, 2025 Esiliiga B
Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev
6:1
Sep 13, 2025 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Narva U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Solodov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Geveller D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Villems M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karpenkov V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Narva U21 85 / 100
Tartu Kalev 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Narva U21 Tartu Kalev

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Narva U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Narva U21 scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Narva U21 has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Tartu Kalev's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Narva U21 VS Tartu Kalev
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Narva U21

(Home)
26 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Narva U21
19 Sept
Tallinna Kalev U21
1 : 2
Narva U21
15 Sept
Narva U21
1 : 0
Tammeka Tartu U21
11 Sept
Narva U21
1 : 0
Levadia U19
06 Sept
Tartu Kalev
0 : 1
Narva U21
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Tartu Kalev

(Away)
26 Sept
Tulevik
6 : 1
Tartu Kalev
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Tartu Kalev
06 Sept
Tartu Kalev
0 : 1
Narva U21
29 Aug
Tartu Kalev
0 : 3
Johvi Phoenix
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 71:36 63
2 Levadia U19 31 19 2 10 78:52 59
3 Johvi Phoenix 30 17 3 10 71:68 54
4 Tammeka Tartu U21 30 15 4 11 74:60 49
5 Tulevik 31 14 5 12 81:64 47
6 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 72:58 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 95:62 46
8 Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 44:81 33
9 Tallinna Kalev U21 31 8 5 18 63:78 29
10 Legion 31 3 3 25 26:116 12
Promotion - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B (Relegation)