Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nasaf Qarshi vs Buxoro

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Markaziy Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Abdirakhmatov Z.
66'
Sub
Ruziev J. In: Juraev A.
Out: Ruziev J.
66'
Sub
Esanov S. In: Kacharava N.
Out: Esanov S.

AI Match Summary

Nasaf Qarshi play Buxoro in the Super League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nasaf Qarshi averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Buxoro averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, Nasaf Qarshi won 4, Buxoro won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 13, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Nasaf Qarshi and 1.25 for Buxoro. This points to a Buxoro double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Nasaf Qarshi
40%
Draws
29%
Buxoro
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Buxoro has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Nasaf Qarshi.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 40% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Super League provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Nasaf Qarshi Clean Sheet 19%
Buxoro Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nasaf Qarshi Buxoro
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 12
Draws 10 7
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Buxoro
1:1
Sep 10, 2025 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Buxoro
5:0
Apr 19, 2025 Super League
Buxoro vs Nasaf Qarshi
1:3
Aug 10, 2023 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Buxoro
1:0
Aug 1, 2023 Uzbekistan Cup
Nasaf Qarshi vs Buxoro
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nasaf Qarshi Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdirakhmatov Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Buxoro Compare

Top Goalscorer Mamasidikov T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nasaf Qarshi 32 / 100
Buxoro 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nasaf Qarshi Buxoro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nasaf Qarshi scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Buxoro let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Nasaf Qarshi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Buxoro lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nasaf Qarshi VS Buxoro
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Neftchi Fargona1191125:328
2Pakhtakor1182122:1226
3Navbahor Namangan1162314:820
4Buxoro1162315:1120
5Bunyodkor1161413:1119
6Lok. Tashkent1152414:1417
7Andijan1151516:1116
8OKMK1144314:1416
9Nasaf Qarshi1135312:1114
10Xorazm Urganch113449:1313
11Qizilqum114168:1513
12Termez Surkhon1133511:1812
13Din. Samarkand1132617:2111
14Kokand 19121125410:1511
15Sogdiana1123619:259
16Mashal Muborak1100114:210