Sport Picks
Nasaf Qarshi vs Neftchi Fargona - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uzbekistan
Super League Markaziy Stadium, Qarshi 
Match Events
5'
5'
Alibaev I.
7'
7'
Eshmurodov U.
8'
8'
Abdikholikov B.
Assist: Mukhitdinov S.
AI Match Summary
The Super League game between Nasaf Qarshi and Neftchi Fargona finished 6-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nasaf Qarshi.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
20%
35%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nasaf Qarshi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Nasaf Qarshi haven't matched Neftchi Fargona's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Nasaf Qarshi's way, sitting at 60%.
- Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Nasaf Qarshi Clean Sheet 18%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nasaf Qarshi | Neftchi Fargona |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 21 |
| Draws | 10 | 4 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 2.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 4, 2026 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Neftchi Fargona
6:2
Apr 18, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Nasaf Qarshi
2:1
Aug 11, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Nasaf Qarshi
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Neftchi Fargona
0:0
Nov 22, 2024 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Nasaf Qarshi
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nasaf Qarshi Compare
Top Goalscorer Abdikholikov B.
2 Goals Assists Leader Eshmurodov U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Neftchi Fargona Compare
Top Goalscorer Odilov A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Perica S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nasaf Qarshi 58 / 100
Neftchi Fargona 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nasaf Qarshi Neftchi Fargona
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nasaf Qarshi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nasaf Qarshi went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Nasaf Qarshi scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Neftchi Fargona has conceded goals in 45% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Nasaf Qarshi VS Neftchi Fargona
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Nasaf Qarshi
(Home) 09 Oct
Nasaf Qarshi
2 : 1 Din. Samarkand
20 Sept
Andijan
1 : 4 Nasaf Qarshi
16 Sept
Al Khalidiyah
0 : 0 Nasaf Qarshi
09 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
3 : 0 Bunyodkor
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Nasaf Qarshi
2 : 1 Din. Samarkand
09 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
3 : 0 Bunyodkor
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
16 Aug
Nasaf Qarshi
1 : 2 Pakhtakor
08 Aug
Nasaf Qarshi
0 : 0 Kokand 1912
Page 1 of 3
Neftchi Fargona
(Away) 07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
18 Aug
Buxoro
4 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
13 Aug
Andijan
0 : 3 Neftchi Fargona
03 Aug
Din. Samarkand
0 : 0 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52:19 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 42:21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35:22 | 37 |
| 5 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 35:31 | 37 |
| 6 | Lok. Tashkent | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 7 | OKMK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31:29 | 35 |
| 8 | Din. Samarkand | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34:36 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 29:31 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 23:30 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38:43 | 28 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 19:28 | 27 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 22:30 | 23 |
| 14 | Xorazm Urganch | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 20:34 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 23:39 | 22 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11:47 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)
