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Nashville SC vs Minnesota United

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AI Match Summary

Nashville SC play Minnesota United in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nashville SC averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. Minnesota United averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Nashville SC won 2, Minnesota United won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 8, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Nashville SC and 1.06 for Minnesota United. This points to a Nashville SC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Nashville SC
6%
Draws
4%
Minnesota United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nashville SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Nashville SC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Minnesota United.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Nashville SC.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in MLS provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Nashville SC Clean Sheet 20%
Minnesota United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nashville SC Minnesota United
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 MLS
Nashville SC vs Minnesota United
3:1
Aug 12, 2023 Leagues Cup
Nashville SC vs Minnesota United
5:0
Aug 15, 2022 MLS
Nashville SC vs Minnesota United
1:2
Mar 5, 2022 MLS
Minnesota United vs Nashville SC
1:1
Oct 7, 2020 MLS
Nashville SC vs Minnesota United
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nashville SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Surridge S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Espinoza C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Minnesota United Compare

Top Goalscorer Triantis N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nashville SC 85 / 100
Minnesota United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nashville SC Minnesota United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nashville SC scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Minnesota United let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Nashville SC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Minnesota United lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nashville SC VS Minnesota United
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307