Sport Picks

Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023

Novoperario

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nautico MS play Novoperario in the Sul-Matogrossense 2023. Novoperario are favorites here. Recently, Nautico MS averaged 0.75 goals scored and 2.63 conceded. Novoperario averaged 0.96 goals scored and 2.32 conceded. In past meetings, Nautico MS won 0, Novoperario won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 19, 2023 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Nautico MS and 1.56 for Novoperario. This points to a Novoperario double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%

Nautico MS

17%

Draws

59%

Novoperario

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Novoperario

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Nautico MS picked up more points recently compared to Novoperario.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Nautico MS Clean Sheet 15%

Novoperario Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Nautico MS	Novoperario
Matches Played	8	28
Wins	0	5
Draws	0	6
Losses	8	17
Goals Scored	0.75	0.96
Goals Conceded	2.63	2.32
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense

Nautico MS vs Novoperario

Possession: 47% - 43% Cards: 4 - 1

0:0

Feb 18, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense

Novoperario vs Nautico MS

Possession: 49% - 56% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nautico MS 25 / 100

Novoperario 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Nautico MS Novoperario

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Novoperario Win (2)

Secondary Pick Novoperario & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +50%

6.25

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nautico MS attacking → ← attacking Novoperario

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nautico MS scored in 50% of their last 8 games.

Novoperario let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 0.00 goals.

Nautico MS went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Novoperario lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

0 Points in last 5 21

0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Costa Rica	8	6	1	1	15:6	19
2	Operario MS	8	5	0	3	13:8	15
3	Chapadao	8	4	1	3	11:10	13
4	Coxim	8	2	2	4	4:11	8
5	Comercial MS	8	0	2	6	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dourados	8	6	1	1	11:5	19
2	Ivinhema	8	3	2	3	14:9	11
3	Novoperario	8	3	2	3	11:10	11
4	Aquidauanense	8	3	1	4	9:15	10
5	Operario AC	8	1	2	5	9:15	5