Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nautico vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos), Recife
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Derek
45'
Kauan Maranhao
45' Event
Leo Indio
Assist: Jean Carlos

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Nautico and Ceara finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nautico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Nautico
30%
Draws
33%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nautico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nautico come out ahead of Ceara on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nautico's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Nautico Clean Sheet 68%
Ceara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nautico Ceara
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.27 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2026 Serie B
Nautico vs Ceara
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie B
Ceara vs Nautico
1:0
Jan 23, 2025 Copa do Nordeste
Nautico vs Ceara
1:0
Feb 15, 2024 Copa do Nordeste
Nautico vs Ceara
0:0
Apr 6, 2019 Copa do Nordeste
Ceara vs Nautico
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nautico Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Indio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ceara Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nautico 50 / 100
Ceara 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nautico Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nautico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ceara conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Nautico scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Nautico went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Nautico VS Ceara
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nautico

(Home)
15 Sept
Nautico
3 : 3
Operario-PR
09 Sept
America MG
2 : 1
Nautico
03 Sept
Nautico
1 : 0
Botafogo SP
28 Aug
Nautico
2 : 1
Athletic Club
23 Aug
Sao Bernardo
1 : 1
Nautico
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Ceara

(Away)
18 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Novorizontino
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
10 Sept
Atletico GO
2 : 1
Ceara
05 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Sport Recife
30 Aug
Vila Nova FC
2 : 0
Ceara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vila Nova FC 29 15 6 8 41:31 51
2 Fortaleza 29 14 9 6 33:24 51
3 Novorizontino 29 14 8 7 49:27 50
4 EC Juventude 29 14 8 7 31:19 50
5 Criciuma 28 13 8 7 28:25 47
6 Atletico GO 29 12 10 7 36:27 46
7 CRB 29 13 6 10 42:41 45
8 Operario-PR 28 12 8 8 39:36 44
9 Sport Recife 29 11 11 7 39:29 44
10 Goias 29 12 6 11 30:35 42
11 Sao Bernardo 29 11 8 10 40:31 41
12 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 34:31 41
13 Cuiaba 28 9 13 6 27:22 40
14 Nautico 28 10 8 10 35:33 38
15 Ceara 29 9 8 12 31:37 35
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32:36 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30:38 30
18 Londrina 29 7 7 15 39:41 28
19 America MG 29 4 5 20 21:49 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 17:62 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)