Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nautico vs Santa Cruz

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos)
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Ianson
18'
Samuel Felix
24'
Pedro Favela

AI Match Summary

Nautico host Santa Cruz in the Pernambucano. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Nautico at 2 goals for, 1.5 against; Santa Cruz at 1.38 for, 0.63 against. Head-to-head, Nautico have won 5 to Santa Cruz's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 22, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.44) point toward Nautico. Nautico in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Nautico
17%
Draws
70%
Santa Cruz
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Nautico has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Santa Cruz.
  • Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Santa Cruz.
  • Cup tournament structure in Pernambucano increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Nautico Clean Sheet 16%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nautico Santa Cruz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 2 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Pernambucano
Nautico vs Santa Cruz
2:0
Feb 11, 2026 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Nautico
0:1
Jan 25, 2026 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Nautico
0:4
Jan 25, 2025 Pernambucano
Nautico vs Santa Cruz
2:1
Jan 27, 2024 Pernambucano
Santa Cruz vs Nautico
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nautico Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulo Sergio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Santa Cruz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nautico 15 / 100
Santa Cruz 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nautico Santa Cruz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nautico scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Santa Cruz let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Nautico went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Santa Cruz lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nautico VS Santa Cruz
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nautico-
TBD-
Santa Cruz3
Decisao1
Sport Recife-
TBD-
Retro3
Maguary2
Semi-finals
Nautico3
Santa Cruz0
Sport Recife4
Retro2
Final
Nautico3
Sport Recife6