Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nautico vs Vila Nova FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos), Recife
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
08:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nautico host Vila Nova FC in the Serie B. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Vila Nova FC have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Nautico have conceded 1.31 and scored 1.24. Head-to-head, Nautico have won 1 to Vila Nova FC's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Jun 20, 2026, ending 4:3. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.63, favoring Vila Nova FC. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Nautico
35%
Draws
45%
Vila Nova FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vila Nova FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vila Nova FC come out ahead of Nautico on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Vila Nova FC's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Vila Nova FC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Nautico Clean Sheet 14%
Vila Nova FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nautico Vila Nova FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 15
Draws 9 5
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.24 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.31 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs Nautico
4:3
Mar 9, 2023 Copa Betano do Brasil
Nautico vs Vila Nova FC
2:1
Aug 20, 2022 Serie B
Nautico vs Vila Nova FC
1:2
May 6, 2022 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs Nautico
2:0
Sep 11, 2021 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs Nautico
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nautico 19 / 100
Vila Nova FC 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nautico Vila Nova FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Nova FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Nautico's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Nautico has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Vila Nova FC conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Nautico VS Vila Nova FC
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nautico

(Home)
08 Oct
Nautico
0 : 2
Novorizontino
03 Oct
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Nautico
26 Sept
Nautico
3 : 1
Sport Recife
22 Sept
Cuiaba
3 : 0
Nautico
15 Sept
Nautico
3 : 3
Operario-PR
Page 1 of 6

Vila Nova FC

(Away)
07 Oct
Vila Nova FC
0 : 0
Cuiaba
03 Oct
Botafogo SP
0 : 1
Vila Nova FC
25 Sept
Vila Nova FC
2 : 0
Londrina
18 Sept
Vila Nova FC
1 : 0
America MG
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 EC Juventude 32 17 8 7 37:19 59
2 Vila Nova FC 32 17 7 8 44:31 58
3 Novorizontino 32 16 9 7 54:27 57
4 Fortaleza 32 15 11 6 37:27 56
5 Criciuma 32 15 8 9 33:28 53
6 Atletico GO 32 14 10 8 40:30 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 49:45 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 44:34 50
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 44:43 48
10 Cuiaba 32 11 14 7 32:25 47
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 32:40 45
12 Sao Bernardo 32 12 9 11 44:34 45
13 Nautico 32 11 9 12 39:40 42
14 Ceara 32 11 9 12 35:39 42
15 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 38:37 42
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 36:38 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 32:43 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 40:47 28
19 America MG 32 4 5 23 21:53 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 17:68 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)