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Navalcarnero vs Conquense

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Martinez M. G.
89' Event
Perez J. V.

AI Match Summary

Navalcarnero in this Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Navalcarnero.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Navalcarnero
35%
Draws
20%
Conquense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Navalcarnero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Navalcarnero haven't matched Conquense's recent run of results.
  • Navalcarnero are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 68%
Conquense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Navalcarnero Conquense
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 11 14
Draws 8 12
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.32 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.29 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Navalcarnero vs Conquense
2:0
Oct 19, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Conquense vs Navalcarnero
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Navalcarnero vs Conquense
2:0
Sep 29, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Conquense vs Navalcarnero
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Navalcarnero Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez M. G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Perez J. V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Conquense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Navalcarnero 86 / 100
Conquense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Navalcarnero Conquense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Navalcarnero Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Navalcarnero has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Navalcarnero found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (31 games).

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Conquense let in goals in 56% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Navalcarnero VS Conquense
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Navalcarnero

(Home)
08 Aug
Alcorcon
1 : 1
Navalcarnero
05 Aug
Toledo
1 : 3
Navalcarnero
03 May
Navalcarnero
3 : 1
CF Fuenlabrada
26 Apr
Colonia Moscardo
0 : 0
Navalcarnero
19 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 0
Conquense
Page 1 of 7

Conquense

(Away)
01 Aug
Conquense
1 : 0
Rayo Majadahonda
31 May
Conquense
0 : 2
UD Ourense
24 May
UD Ourense
1 : 0
Conquense
17 May
Conquense
0 : 0
Xerez CD
09 May
Xerez CD
1 : 1
Conquense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rayo Majadahonda 34 20 10 4 52:23 70
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 21 7 6 51:27 70
3 Conquense 34 16 12 6 42:30 60
4 Getafe B 34 16 9 9 55:35 57
5 CD Coria 34 16 9 9 50:38 57
6 RSD Alcala 34 14 9 11 42:39 51
7 Tenerife B 34 15 5 14 57:53 50
8 Orihuela 34 12 10 12 45:43 46
9 CF Intercity 34 11 10 13 42:45 43
10 Navalcarnero 34 11 10 13 40:42 43
11 Las Palmas B 34 11 9 14 42:45 42
12 Ilicitano 34 10 11 13 51:56 41
13 Real Madrid C 34 11 7 16 42:45 40
14 Quintanar del Rey 34 11 6 17 36:43 39
15 CF Fuenlabrada 34 9 10 15 35:44 37
16 Colonia Moscardo 34 9 7 18 37:57 34
17 Socuellamos 34 7 10 17 34:55 31
18 Rayo Vallecano B 34 9 3 22 30:63 30
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)