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Navalcarnero vs Real Avila

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Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Peque
40' Event
Vazquez K.
65' Event
Fustos D.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 5 game between Navalcarnero and Real Avila finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Navalcarnero.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Navalcarnero
15%
Draws
32%
Real Avila
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Navalcarnero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Real Avila come out ahead of Navalcarnero on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 20%
Real Avila Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Navalcarnero Real Avila
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.39 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Navalcarnero vs Real Avila
2:1
Aug 14, 2024 Club Friendly
Navalcarnero vs Real Avila
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Navalcarnero Compare

Top Goalscorer Peque
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vazquez K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Real Avila Compare

Top Goalscorer Fustos D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Navalcarnero 32 / 100
Real Avila 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Navalcarnero Real Avila

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Navalcarnero's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Real Avila conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Navalcarnero stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Navalcarnero VS Real Avila
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Navalcarnero

(Home)
23 Sept
Atletico Saguntino
0 : 4
Navalcarnero
20 Sept
Atletico Tordesillas
2 : 2
Navalcarnero
13 Sept
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Real Avila
09 Sept
CF Talavera
0 : 2
Navalcarnero
06 Sept
Valladolid Promesas
1 : 0
Navalcarnero
Page 1 of 6

Real Avila

(Away)
20 Sept
Real Avila
2 : 1
Puertollano C.F.
13 Sept
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Real Avila
05 Sept
Atl. Madrid C
2 : 1
Real Avila
29 Aug
RSD Alcala
2 : 1
Real Avila
22 Aug
Real Avila
4 : 0
Pozuelo de Alarcon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Numancia 3 2 1 0 4:0 7
2 San Sebastian Reyes 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
3 Conquense 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
4 RSD Alcala 3 2 0 1 9:4 6
5 Valladolid Promesas 3 2 0 1 7:2 6
6 Salamanca CF UDS 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
7 Atl. Madrid C 3 2 0 1 3:3 6
8 Navalcarnero 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
9 Albacete B 3 1 1 1 5:9 4
10 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
11 Gimnastica Segoviana 3 1 0 2 6:7 3
12 Real Avila 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
13 Real Madrid C 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
14 Getafe B 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
15 CF Talavera 3 0 2 1 1:4 2
16 Atletico Tordesillas 3 0 1 2 6:9 1
17 Atletico Paso 3 0 1 2 0:3 1
18 Puertollano C.F. 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)