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Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan Cup Markaziy Stadium, Namangan
Navbahor Namangan Logo

Navbahor Namangan

1 - 0
FT
Nasaf Qarshi Logo

Nasaf Qarshi

Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Rakhimzhonov A.
42'
Murtazoyev D.
57'
Sub
Ilic V. In: Usmonov M.
Out: Ilic V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Navbahor Namangan
20%
Draws
40%
Nasaf Qarshi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Navbahor Namangan have won more games recently than Nasaf Qarshi.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Navbahor Namangan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Navbahor Namangan, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Navbahor Namangan Clean Sheet 20%
Nasaf Qarshi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Navbahor Namangan Nasaf Qarshi
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 15 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.59 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.04 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Uzbekistan Cup
Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi
1:0
Aug 21, 2026 Super League
Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi
1:0
May 4, 2026 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Navbahor Namangan
0:0
Oct 30, 2025 Super League
Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi
0:0
Jun 15, 2025 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Navbahor Namangan
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Navbahor Namangan Compare

Top Goalscorer Jiyanov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Nasaf Qarshi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Navbahor Namangan 32 / 100
Nasaf Qarshi 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Navbahor Namangan Nasaf Qarshi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Navbahor Namangan scored in 85% of their last 27 games.

Navbahor Namangan has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Nasaf Qarshi conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 0.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Navbahor Namangan VS Nasaf Qarshi
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Navbahor Namangan

(Home)
17 Sept
Navbahor Namangan
3 : 2
Din. Samarkand
11 Sept
Buxoro
1 : 4
Navbahor Namangan
04 Sept
Navbahor Namangan
1 : 1
Lok. Tashkent
30 Aug
Navbahor Namangan
1 : 0
Nasaf Qarshi
26 Aug
Mashal Muborak
0 : 2
Navbahor Namangan
Page 1 of 6

Nasaf Qarshi

(Away)
09 Oct
Nasaf Qarshi
2 : 1
Din. Samarkand
20 Sept
Andijan
1 : 4
Nasaf Qarshi
16 Sept
Al Khalidiyah
0 : 0
Nasaf Qarshi
09 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
3 : 0
Bunyodkor
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2
Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Neftchi Fargona 1
Pakhtakor 0
Bunyodkor 0
Lok. Tashkent 1
Sogdiana 2
Jayxun 0
Andijan 3
Olimpik-Mobiuz 2
OKMK 2
Xorazm Urganch 1
Termez Surkhon 0
PFK Guliston 1
Navbahor Namangan 1
Nasaf Qarshi 0
Gazalkent 2
Kokand 1912 1
Quarter-finals
Neftchi Fargona -
Lok. Tashkent -
Sogdiana -
Andijan -
OKMK -
PFK Guliston -
Navbahor Namangan -
Gazalkent -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -