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Naviraiense vs Chapadao

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022 game between Naviraiense and Chapadao finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naviraiense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Naviraiense
30%
Draws
33%
Chapadao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Naviraiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Naviraiense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Naviraiense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 68%
Chapadao Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naviraiense Chapadao
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.47 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Naviraiense
3:2
Mar 27, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Chapadao
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naviraiense 50 / 100
Chapadao 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naviraiense Chapadao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Naviraiense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapadao has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Naviraiense scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Naviraiense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Naviraiense VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Naviraiense

(Home)
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Naviraiense
0 : 0
Operario MS
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
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Chapadao

(Away)
02 Apr
Ivinhema
2 : 4
Chapadao
26 Mar
Chapadao
0 : 3
Ivinhema
12 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Chapadao
05 Mar
Chapadao
1 : 1
Coxim
03 Mar
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Chapadao
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