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Naviraiense vs Corumbaense

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Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense game between Naviraiense and Corumbaense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naviraiense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Naviraiense
30%
Draws
33%
Corumbaense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Naviraiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Naviraiense come out ahead of Corumbaense on wins alone.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 20%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naviraiense Corumbaense
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 13 9
Draws 9 10
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.43 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Corumbaense
1:0
Jan 19, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Corumbaense
0:0
Mar 16, 2017 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Corumbaense
2:4
Feb 18, 2017 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Naviraiense
1:1
Apr 3, 2016 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Corumbaense
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naviraiense 32 / 100
Corumbaense 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naviraiense Corumbaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naviraiense found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Corumbaense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Naviraiense remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Naviraiense VS Corumbaense
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Naviraiense

(Home)
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Naviraiense
0 : 0
Operario MS
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
Page 1 of 6

Corumbaense

(Away)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Naviraiense 9 5 3 1 13:9 18
2 Operario MS 9 4 5 0 14:5 17
3 Corumbaense 9 3 4 2 10:7 13
4 Ivinhema 9 3 3 3 10:11 12
5 Bataguassu 9 3 3 3 15:17 12
6 Dourados 9 2 4 3 15:14 10
7 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 9 2 4 3 12:13 10
8 Pantanal 9 2 3 4 10:15 9
9 Costa Rica 9 1 5 3 6:10 8
10 Aguia Negra 9 1 4 4 9:13 7
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)