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Naviraiense vs Operario MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Gustavo Henrique
66' Event
Sampaio

AI Match Summary

Naviraiense host Operario MS in the Sul-Matogrossense 2025. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Naviraiense have averaged 0.5 scored and 2 conceded recently, against Operario MS's 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded. Past meetings favor Operario MS slightly — 0-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 22, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.94 - 1.63) back Operario MS to edge this. Operario MS in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Naviraiense
39%
Draws
31%
Operario MS
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Operario MS has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Naviraiense.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Sul-Matogrossense 2025 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 14%
Operario MS Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naviraiense Operario MS
Matches Played 28 48
Wins 13 24
Draws 9 14
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 0.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Operario MS
0:0
Feb 9, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Operario MS
1:1
Apr 10, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Naviraiense
1:0
Mar 23, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Operario MS
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naviraiense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Henrique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Operario MS Compare

Top Goalscorer Sampaio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naviraiense 30 / 100
Operario MS 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naviraiense Operario MS

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naviraiense scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Operario MS let in goals in 67% of their last 48 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Naviraiense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Operario MS lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Naviraiense VS Operario MS
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ivinhema961221:719
2Pantanal953117:718
3Dourados953117:718
4Operario MS951311:1216
5Costa Rica935114:1014
6Aguia Negra932414:1411
7Naviraiense923411:149
8Corumbaense92258:148
9Coxim92167:187
10Aquidauanense911712:294