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Nebitci vs Merw - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nebitci host Merw in the Yokary Liga. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Merw have shipped 2.76 goals a game lately, while Nebitci have conceded 1.79 and scored 0.82. Head-to-head, Nebitci have won 4 to Merw's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 15, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.88 vs 1.75, favoring Nebitci. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Nebitci
30%
Draws
47%
Merw
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Merw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nebitci come out ahead of Merw on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nebitci's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Yokary Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Nebitci have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Nebitci Clean Sheet 12%
Merw Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nebitci Merw
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 5
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 20
Goals Scored 0.82 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.79 2.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Yokary Liga
Merw vs Nebitci
0:1
May 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Nebitci vs Merw
2:1
Apr 11, 2026 Yokary Liga
Merw vs Nebitci
4:1
Nov 8, 2025 Yokary Liga
Merw vs Nebitci
1:2
Aug 19, 2025 Yokary Liga
Nebitci vs Merw
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nebitci 38 / 100
Merw 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nebitci Merw

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nebitci Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merw has conceded goals in 97% of their last 29 outings.

Nebitci scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Away concern: Merw has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nebitci VS Merw
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nebitci

(Home)
19 Sept
Nebitci
1 : 3
Altyn Asyr
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Nebitci
2 : 4
Arkadag
30 Aug
Kopetdag Asgabat
2 : 2
Nebitci
22 Aug
Nebitci
1 : 1
FC Asgabat
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Merw

(Away)
24 Sept
Merw
0 : 5
Arkadag
19 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Merw
12 Sept
Merw
2 : 2
Kopetdag Asgabat
30 Aug
Merw
3 : 2
FC Asgabat
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
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