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Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Marquez J.
Assist: Rodriguez C.
32'
Sub
Vargas C. In: Zaleta M.
Out: Vargas C.
43'
Leyva D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX game between Necaxa and Cruz Azul finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cruz Azul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Necaxa
30%
Draws
58%
Cruz Azul
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cruz Azul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Cruz Azul carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Cruz Azul a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Cruz Azul have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Necaxa Clean Sheet 14%
Cruz Azul Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Necaxa Cruz Azul
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 14
Draws 6 10
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.27 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Liga MX
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
1:3
Apr 27, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Necaxa
4:1
Oct 22, 2025 Liga MX
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
1:1
Jan 29, 2025 Liga MX
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
1:3
Oct 5, 2024 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Necaxa
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Necaxa Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Cruz Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Marquez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ibanez N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Necaxa 23 / 100
Cruz Azul 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Necaxa Cruz Azul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cruz Azul Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:8
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cruz Azul's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Necaxa's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Necaxa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Necaxa VS Cruz Azul
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Necaxa

(Home)
28 Sept
Necaxa
2 : 4
Club America
19 Sept
Atletico San Luis
3 : 1
Necaxa
12 Sept
Necaxa
0 : 1
Puebla
06 Sept
Tigres UANL
1 : 1
Necaxa
29 Aug
Necaxa
1 : 3
Cruz Azul
Page 1 of 6

Cruz Azul

(Away)
02 Oct
Club America
0 : 0
Cruz Azul
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
17 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Cruz Azul
4 : 3
Club America
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 23:12 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
4 Queretaro 9 5 2 2 13:8 17
5 Club Leon 10 5 2 3 14:11 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 16:17 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14:13 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 11:12 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 16:14 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 15:11 12
12 UNAM Pumas 10 3 3 4 14:16 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 14:18 12
14 Atlante 10 2 5 3 12:15 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10:13 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10:15 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
18 Juarez 10 1 0 9 7:25 3
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)