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Necaxa vs Mazatlan FC

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Victoria
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Ruiz J.
Assist: Faravelli L.
40' Event
Fabio Gomes
Assist: Ovalle J.
48'
Merolla L.

AI Match Summary

Necaxa host Mazatlan FC in the Liga MX 2025/2026. This one's hard to separate. Necaxa have averaged 1 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Mazatlan FC's 1.63 scored and 2.25 conceded. Head-to-head, Necaxa have won 2 to Mazatlan FC's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 1.44) point toward Necaxa. Necaxa in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Necaxa
6%
Draws
4%
Mazatlan FC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Necaxa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Necaxa has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Mazatlan FC.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Necaxa.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga MX 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Necaxa Clean Sheet 16%
Mazatlan FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Necaxa Mazatlan FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga MX
Necaxa vs Mazatlan FC
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Necaxa
1:1
Feb 22, 2025 Liga MX
Necaxa vs Mazatlan FC
3:1
Sep 19, 2024 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Necaxa
0:0
Mar 2, 2024 Liga MX
Mazatlan FC vs Necaxa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Necaxa Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pena A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Mazatlan FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fabio Gomes
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Necaxa 84 / 100
Mazatlan FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Necaxa Mazatlan FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Necaxa scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Mazatlan FC let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Necaxa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mazatlan FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Necaxa VS Mazatlan FC
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1UNAM Pumas17106134:1736
2Guadalajara Chivas17113333:1736
3Cruz Azul1796231:1833
4Pachuca1794425:1931
5Toluca1786328:1630
6Atlas1775516:1826
7Tigres UANL1774628:1825
8Club America1774620:1725
9Club Tijuana1758419:1723
10Club Leon1771922:3222
11Queretaro1748517:2120
12Juarez1754826:3219
13Monterrey1753922:2418
14Atletico San Luis1753924:2718
15Necaxa1753919:2518
16Mazatlan FC17431022:3715
17Puebla17341013:2613
18Santos Laguna17331120:3812