Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Necaxa W vs Toluca W

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Tue, Sep 29, 2026
VS
01:06 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Necaxa W host Toluca W in the Liga MX Women. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Necaxa W have averaged 0.52 scored and 3.55 conceded recently, against Toluca W's 2.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. Head-to-head, Necaxa W have won 0 to Toluca W's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 21, 2026, ending 5:1. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 3.00, favoring Toluca W. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Necaxa W
15%
Draws
85%
Toluca W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Toluca W come out ahead of Necaxa W on wins alone.
  • Model gives Toluca W a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga MX Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Toluca W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Necaxa W Clean Sheet 10%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Necaxa W Toluca W
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 1 19
Draws 1 5
Losses 27 8
Goals Scored 0.52 2.25
Goals Conceded 3.55 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Necaxa W
5:1
Oct 17, 2025 Liga MX Women
Necaxa W vs Toluca W
0:2
Feb 28, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Necaxa W
3:0
Sep 27, 2024 Liga MX Women
Necaxa W vs Toluca W
1:4
Feb 5, 2024 Liga MX Women
Necaxa W vs Toluca W
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Necaxa W 10 / 100
Toluca W 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Necaxa W Toluca W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Toluca W conceded in 75% of 32 recent games.

Necaxa W's goal record stands at 41% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Toluca W's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Necaxa W VS Toluca W
0.38 Goals Scored 2
4 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Necaxa W

(Home)
19 Sept
Monterrey W
10 : 0
Necaxa W
13 Sept
Juarez W
1 : 0
Necaxa W
05 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 2
Atletico San Luis W
30 Aug
Puebla W
4 : 1
Necaxa W
24 Aug
Necaxa W
0 : 7
Club America W
Page 1 of 6

Toluca W

(Away)
22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7
Tigres UANL W
15 Sept
Toluca W
6 : 0
Club Tijuana W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1
Toluca W
29 Aug
Toluca W
1 : 0
Club Leon W
24 Aug
Atlante W
1 : 2
Toluca W
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monterrey W 8 7 0 1 33:9 21
2 Tigres UANL W 8 7 0 1 28:8 21
3 Juarez W 8 6 0 2 9:5 18
4 Toluca W 8 5 1 2 19:15 16
5 Club Leon W 8 4 0 4 15:12 12
6 Santos Laguna W 8 4 0 4 11:16 12
7 Cruz Azul W 9 4 0 5 11:21 12
8 Atlante W 8 2 0 6 6:12 6
9 Queretaro W 8 2 0 6 10:20 6
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America W 8 7 1 0 37:7 22
2 Guadalajara Chivas W 9 6 0 3 20:11 18
3 Atletico San Luis W 8 5 0 3 21:15 15
4 UNAM Pumas W 8 4 0 4 17:14 12
5 Atlas W 8 2 3 3 9:17 9
6 Pachuca W 8 2 1 5 9:12 7
7 Club Tijuana W 8 2 0 6 11:19 6
8 Puebla W 8 1 0 7 12:36 3
9 Necaxa W 8 0 0 8 3:32 0
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)