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Neftchi Fargona vs Bunyodkor - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neftchi Fargona host Bunyodkor in the Super League. Neftchi Fargona are expected to control this from the start. Recent numbers: Neftchi Fargona at 2.1 goals for, 0.97 against; Bunyodkor at 1.03 for, 1.76 against. Head-to-head, Neftchi Fargona have won 3 to Bunyodkor's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 14, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.75 - 1.06) back Neftchi Fargona to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Neftchi Fargona
20%
Draws
23%
Bunyodkor
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neftchi Fargona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Neftchi Fargona carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Neftchi Fargona are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 20%
Bunyodkor Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftchi Fargona Bunyodkor
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 8
Draws 4 3
Losses 5 18
Goals Scored 2.1 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 Super League
Bunyodkor vs Neftchi Fargona
0:1
Aug 2, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Bunyodkor
1:2
Mar 8, 2025 Super League
Bunyodkor vs Neftchi Fargona
2:2
Nov 3, 2024 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Bunyodkor
2:1
Jun 1, 2024 Super League
Bunyodkor vs Neftchi Fargona
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftchi Fargona 76 / 100
Bunyodkor 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftchi Fargona Bunyodkor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neftchi Fargona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Neftchi Fargona scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Bunyodkor let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Neftchi Fargona has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Neftchi Fargona VS Bunyodkor
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Neftchi Fargona

(Home)
16 Oct
Kokand 1912
2 : 4
Neftchi Fargona
12 Oct
Al Nassr
3 : 1
Neftchi Fargona
07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2
Xorazm Urganch
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1
Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Page 1 of 6

Bunyodkor

(Away)
16 Oct
Bunyodkor
1 : 1
Sogdiana
09 Oct
Pakhtakor
3 : 1
Bunyodkor
19 Sept
Bunyodkor
2 : 1
Buxoro
15 Sept
Bunyodkor
0 : 1
Lok. Tashkent
09 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
3 : 0
Bunyodkor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 24 17 4 3 56:21 55
2 Pakhtakor 24 15 8 1 43:22 53
3 Navbahor Namangan 24 13 7 4 42:24 46
4 Buxoro 24 12 4 8 37:32 40
5 Lok. Tashkent 24 11 6 7 39:30 39
6 OKMK 24 11 6 7 34:31 39
7 Nasaf Qarshi 24 10 8 6 35:22 38
8 Qizilqum 24 10 3 11 24:30 33
9 Din. Samarkand 24 8 6 10 35:38 30
10 Andijan 24 9 3 12 29:32 30
11 Sogdiana 24 8 5 11 41:47 29
12 Termez Surkhon 24 7 7 10 19:28 28
13 Kokand 1912 24 5 8 11 24:34 23
14 Xorazm Urganch 24 5 8 11 20:34 23
15 Bunyodkor 24 7 2 15 24:40 23
16 Mashal Muborak 24 1 1 22 11:48 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)