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Stadium Background

Neftchi Fargona vs Pakhtakor

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan Cup Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana
Neftchi Fargona Logo

Neftchi Fargona

1 - 0
FT
Pakhtakor Logo

Pakhtakor

Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Sub
Erkinov K. In: Resan B.
Out: Erkinov K.
42'
Sub
Khamdamov D. In: Flamarion
Out: Khamdamov D.
46'
Sub
Yuldoshev I. In: Toshmirzaev B.
Out: Yuldoshev I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Neftchi Fargona
15%
Draws
39%
Pakhtakor
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Neftchi Fargona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Neftchi Fargona lately — more wins on the board than Pakhtakor.
  • Pakhtakor are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Neftchi Fargona have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pakhtakor, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 16%
Pakhtakor Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftchi Fargona Pakhtakor
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 21 15
Draws 3 8
Losses 4 5
Goals Scored 2.14 1.64
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Uzbekistan Cup
Neftchi Fargona vs Pakhtakor
1:0
Apr 9, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Pakhtakor
0:1
Mar 15, 2026 Super Cup
Neftchi Fargona vs Pakhtakor
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Super League
Pakhtakor vs Neftchi Fargona
2:1
Apr 19, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Pakhtakor
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftchi Fargona Compare

Top Goalscorer Perica S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Pakhtakor Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftchi Fargona 19 / 100
Pakhtakor 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftchi Fargona Pakhtakor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pakhtakor Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Neftchi Fargona scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Pakhtakor has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Neftchi Fargona stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Neftchi Fargona VS Pakhtakor
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Neftchi Fargona

(Home)
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1
Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1
Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2
Neftchi Fargona
29 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Pakhtakor
Page 1 of 6

Pakhtakor

(Away)
19 Sept
Mashal Muborak
1 : 2
Pakhtakor
14 Sept
Al Ahli SC
1 : 1
Pakhtakor
09 Sept
OKMK
1 : 3
Pakhtakor
04 Sept
Pakhtakor
3 : 0
Andijan
29 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Pakhtakor
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Neftchi Fargona 1
Pakhtakor 0
Bunyodkor 0
Lok. Tashkent 1
Sogdiana 2
Jayxun 0
Andijan 3
Olimpik-Mobiuz 2
OKMK 2
Xorazm Urganch 1
Termez Surkhon 0
PFK Guliston 1
Navbahor Namangan 1
Nasaf Qarshi 0
Gazalkent 2
Kokand 1912 1
Quarter-finals
Neftchi Fargona -
Lok. Tashkent -
Sogdiana -
Andijan -
OKMK -
PFK Guliston -
Navbahor Namangan -
Gazalkent -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -