Sport Picks
Neftchi Fargona vs Xorazm Urganch - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uzbekistan
Super League Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana 
Match Events
8'
8'
Rafael Tavares
25'
25'
Perica S.
36'
36'
Rafael Tavares
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
30%
12%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Neftchi Fargona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Neftchi Fargona lately — more wins on the board than Xorazm Urganch.
- Win probability leans Neftchi Fargona's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 20%
Xorazm Urganch Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Neftchi Fargona | Xorazm Urganch |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 21 | 7 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 5 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 7, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Xorazm Urganch
2:2
Apr 24, 2026 Super League
Xorazm Urganch vs Neftchi Fargona
0:2
Nov 30, 2025 Super League
Xorazm Urganch vs Neftchi Fargona
2:0
Jul 7, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Xorazm Urganch
2:0
Aug 29, 2021 Pro Liga
Xorazm Urganch vs Neftchi Fargona
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Neftchi Fargona Compare
Top Goalscorer Perica S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Iskanderov J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Xorazm Urganch Compare
Top Goalscorer Rafael Tavares
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Neftchi Fargona 85 / 100
Xorazm Urganch 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Neftchi Fargona Xorazm Urganch
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Neftchi Fargona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Neftchi Fargona found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).
Xorazm Urganch has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Neftchi Fargona stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Neftchi Fargona VS Xorazm Urganch
2.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Neftchi Fargona
(Home) 07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
29 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Pakhtakor
23 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
3 : 0 Sogdiana
Page 1 of 4
Xorazm Urganch
(Away) 07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
21 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
1 : 3 Qizilqum
16 Sept
OKMK
2 : 1 Xorazm Urganch
10 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
0 : 0 Sogdiana
03 Sept
OKMK
1 : 0 Xorazm Urganch
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
16 Sept
OKMK
2 : 1 Xorazm Urganch
03 Sept
OKMK
1 : 0 Xorazm Urganch
25 Aug
Andijan
1 : 0 Xorazm Urganch
14 Aug
Din. Samarkand
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52:19 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 42:21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35:22 | 37 |
| 5 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 35:31 | 37 |
| 6 | Lok. Tashkent | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 7 | OKMK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31:29 | 35 |
| 8 | Din. Samarkand | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34:36 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 29:31 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 23:30 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38:43 | 28 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 19:28 | 26 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 22:30 | 23 |
| 14 | Xorazm Urganch | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 20:34 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 23:39 | 22 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11:47 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)
