Sport Picks
Neftci Baku vs Safa Baku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Azerbaijan
Premier League Palms Sports Arena, Baku 
Match Events
35'
35'
Abbasov R.
46'
46'
Sub
Sambou B. In: Vargas F.
Out: Sambou B.
46'
46'
Sub
Diaw O. In: Mertens D.
Out: Diaw O.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Neftci Baku and Safa Baku finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftci Baku.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
65%
15%
20%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Neftci Baku
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Neftci Baku carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Neftci Baku a 65% chance of winning this.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Neftci Baku have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Safa Baku Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Neftci Baku | Safa Baku |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 19 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 7 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.36 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Safa Baku
4:1
May 23, 2005 Premier League
Safa Baku vs Neftci Baku
0:3
Dec 20, 2004 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Safa Baku
2:0
May 4, 2004 Premier League
Safa Baku vs Neftci Baku
0:1
Aug 8, 2003 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Safa Baku
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Neftci Baku Compare
Top Goalscorer Skribek A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Abbasov R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Safa Baku Compare
Top Goalscorer Musayev M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Neftci Baku 85 / 100
Safa Baku 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Neftci Baku Safa Baku
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Neftci Baku Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Neftci Baku scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Neftci Baku went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Safa Baku lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Neftci Baku VS Safa Baku
1.75 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Neftci Baku
(Home) 09 Oct
Neftci Baku
0 : 0 Sabah Baku
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3 Neftci Baku
11 Sept
Imisli FK
2 : 3 Neftci Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1 Safa Baku
30 Aug
Zira FK
1 : 0 Neftci Baku
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Neftci Baku
0 : 0 Sabah Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1 Safa Baku
23 Aug
Neftci Baku
5 : 0 Araz PFK
22 Jul
Neftci Baku
2 : 4 Din. Minsk
13 Jul
Neftci Baku
0 : 1 Osijek
Page 1 of 3
Safa Baku
(Away) 18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0 Safa Baku
14 Sept
Safa Baku
0 : 3 Sabah Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1 Safa Baku
29 Aug
Safa Baku
0 : 1 Imisli FK
22 Aug
Gabala
0 : 1 Safa Baku
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0 Safa Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1 Safa Baku
22 Aug
Gabala
0 : 1 Safa Baku
16 Aug
Zira FK
2 : 0 Safa Baku
22 May
Zaqatala PFK
2 : 1 Safa Baku
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftci Baku | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 16 |
| 2 | Sabah Baku | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14:1 | 16 |
| 3 | Qarabag Agdam | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 4 | Turan | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | 11 |
| 5 | Zira FK | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | 11 |
| 6 | Kapaz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:7 | 10 |
| 7 | Shamakhi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 8 | SumQayit FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8:9 | 5 |
| 9 | Gabala | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:11 | 4 |
| 10 | Imisli FK | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 12 | Araz PFK | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5:15 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)
