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Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL Neftekhimik Stadium, Nizhnekamsk
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neftekhimik host Chelyabinsk in the FNL. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Neftekhimik at 1 goals for, 1.29 against; Chelyabinsk at 1.07 for, 1.56 against. Past meetings favor Chelyabinsk slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.31) back Neftekhimik to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Neftekhimik
20%
Draws
58%
Chelyabinsk
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chelyabinsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Chelyabinsk haven't matched Neftekhimik's recent run of results.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Chelyabinsk taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 18%
Chelyabinsk Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftekhimik Chelyabinsk
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 10 5
Draws 6 10
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 FNL
Chelyabinsk vs Neftekhimik
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk
1:1
Oct 28, 2018 FNL 2 - Group 4
Chelyabinsk vs Neftekhimik
0:0
Aug 26, 2018 FNL 2 - Group 4
Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk
2:1
Apr 10, 2018 FNL 2 - Group 4
Chelyabinsk vs Neftekhimik
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftekhimik 28 / 100
Chelyabinsk 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftekhimik Chelyabinsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelyabinsk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelyabinsk has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Neftekhimik found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (31 games).

Neftekhimik went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Neftekhimik VS Chelyabinsk
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Neftekhimik

(Home)
18 Sept
Neftekhimik
0 : 1
Ural
14 Sept
S. Kostroma
1 : 0
Neftekhimik
09 Sept
FC Chertanovo Moscow
2 : 1
Neftekhimik
05 Sept
Yenisey
0 : 2
Neftekhimik
28 Aug
Neftekhimik
0 : 1
Ufa
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Chelyabinsk

(Away)
26 Sept
Chelyabinsk
1 : 1
Yenisey
18 Sept
Chelyabinsk
2 : 1
Ufa
14 Sept
Kamaz
1 : 1
Chelyabinsk
10 Sept
Dynamo Barnaul
0 : 2
Chelyabinsk
05 Sept
Chelyabinsk
0 : 1
S. Kostroma
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 36:14 31
2 Ural 12 7 4 1 20:6 25
3 S. Kostroma 12 7 3 2 16:10 24
4 PFC Sochi 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
5 Veles Moscow 13 7 2 4 17:16 23
6 Torpedo Moscow 12 6 3 3 21:9 21
7 Ufa 12 4 6 2 16:13 18
8 R. Volgograd 12 5 2 5 20:14 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 15:13 16
10 Yenisey 12 3 5 4 15:20 14
11 Ulyanovsk 13 4 2 7 16:19 14
12 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 12:22 13
13 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 10:20 13
14 Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 7:15 12
15 Chelyabinsk 12 3 3 6 13:19 12
16 Kamaz 12 2 3 7 11:19 9
17 Tekstilshtik 12 1 4 7 8:19 7
18 SKA Khabarovsk 12 1 3 8 11:23 6
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