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Nefyn United vs Caernarfon

Wales Wales

FA Cup 2007/2008
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AI Match Summary

Caernarfon in this FA Cup 2007/2008 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Nefyn United
15%
Draws
65%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caernarfon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Nefyn United haven't matched Caernarfon's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Caernarfon a 65% chance of winning this.
  • Caernarfon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Caernarfon, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Nefyn United Clean Sheet 17%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nefyn United Caernarfon
Matches Played 10 30
Wins 2 16
Draws 0 4
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.7 1.93
Goals Conceded 3 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 3, 2007 FAW Welsh Cup
Nefyn United vs Caernarfon
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nefyn United 10 / 100
Caernarfon 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nefyn United Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nefyn United scored in 90% of their last 10 outings.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Caernarfon conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Nefyn United remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Caernarfon
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nefyn United

(Home)
20 Sept
Rhostyllen
5 : 2
Nefyn United
19 Oct
Nefyn United
0 : 2
Bangor City
09 Nov
Nefyn United
1 : 3
Caersws FC
12 Oct
Nefyn United
2 : 1
Penrhyndeudraeth FC
02 Oct
Nefyn United
1 : 3
Caersws FC
Page 1 of 2

Caernarfon

(Away)
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1
Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5
Caernarfon
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0
Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3
TNS
28 Aug
Holywell Town FC
3 : 5
Caernarfon
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Connahs Q. 0
Guilsfield 2
Nefyn United 1
Caernarfon 3
Aberystwyth 3
Neath Athletic 1
Caersws FC 2
Bangor City 3
Newport YMCA 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Llangefni 3
Mynydd Isa 0
Bryntirion Athletic 4
Dinas Powys 2
Tywyn Bryncrug 1
Welshpool 3
Cefn Druids 3
Holyhead 0
Aberdare Town 3
Caerau Ely 1
Newtown 2
Maesteg Park 1
Llanrug 3
Llanelli 5
Haverfordwest 3
Ton Pentre 0
Rhyl 1
Port Talbot 0
Queens Park 3
Afan Lido 1
Caerleon 2
Brymbo 0
1/8-finals
Guilsfield 1
Caernarfon 0
Aberystwyth 0
Bangor City 1
Newport YMCA 2
Llangefni 1
Bryntirion Athletic 1
Welshpool 2
Cefn Druids 1
Aberdare Town 0
Newtown 1
Llanelli 2
Haverfordwest 1
Rhyl 2
Queens Park 2
Caerleon 0
Quarter-finals
Guilsfield 0
Bangor City 6
Newport YMCA 3
Welshpool 2
Cefn Druids 3
Llanelli 6
Rhyl 3
Queens Park 2
Semi-finals
Bangor City 3
Newport YMCA 1
Llanelli 5
Rhyl 2
Final
Bangor City 4
Llanelli 2