Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nejmeh SC vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Michel Melki F.
Assist: Michael R.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Nejmeh SC and Al Ahed finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nejmeh SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Nejmeh SC
30%
Draws
12%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nejmeh SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Ahed haven't matched Nejmeh SC's recent run of results.
  • Nejmeh SC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Nejmeh SC have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Nejmeh SC Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nejmeh SC Al Ahed
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 21 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 2.03 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Premier League
Nejmeh SC vs Al Ahed
2:1
Jul 16, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Nejmeh SC
0:2
Jun 12, 2026 Premier League
Nejmeh SC vs Al Ahed
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Nejmeh SC
0:4
Jul 3, 2025 Premier League
Nejmeh SC vs Al Ahed
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nejmeh SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Michel Melki F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Al Ahed Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nejmeh SC 95 / 100
Al Ahed 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nejmeh SC Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nejmeh SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nejmeh SC's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Al Ahed has conceded goals in 69% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Nejmeh SC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nejmeh SC VS Al Ahed
2.13 Goals Scored 1.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nejmeh SC

(Home)
02 Aug
Nejmeh SC
1 : 2
Al Ansar
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Jwayya SC
20 Jul
Al Ansar
1 : 1
Nejmeh SC
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
Page 1 of 7

Al Ahed

(Away)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)